The second risk relates to financial market stability. However, the speed of this disinflationary process is hard to assess and will depend on a number of factors including weakening demand and pricing power of firms, labor market dynamics, and passthrough from past input price increases. Price pressures in the (global) goods and industrial sectors have receded, and if history is any guide, services prices should likewise moderate over the next quarters. While headline inflation has peaked in most economies, core inflation (excluding volatile items such as food and energy) has proven stickier and has not decisively peaked in many economies. Two key risks stand out regarding the global economic outlook. Nonetheless, recent data point to moderation of these positive trends, leading to slower global growth in the second half of 2023 and early 2024. Strong consumer spending and the fading impact of shocks of recent years have been difficult to assess, leading to ongoing forecast revisions. However, this weakness has been more than offset by strength in other sectors, most notably service-sector activities, which is visible in labor markets. Rapid monetary policy tightening over the last year or so led to weakening in global housing, bank lending, and the industrial sector. Growth is generally strongest in emerging Asian economies, and weakest in Europe and the US. Rather than a global recession, we expect a relatively subdued economic outlook. Economic growth is moderating under the weight of still high inflation and monetary policy tightening. We expect further slowing to 2.4 percent in 2024. Global real GDP is forecasted to grow by 2.7 percent in 2023, down from 3.3 percent in 2022. Human Capital Benchmarking & Data Analytics.The 2023 IBI/Conference Board Health and Productivity Forum.
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